Economic Outlook November 2018

Economisch onderzoek

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29 nov 2018

De nieuwste uitgave van de (Engelstalige) Economic Outlook, met daarin een beeld van de huidige wereldwijde economische omgeving en de vooruitzichten door Atradius Economic Research.

Executive Summary

Following a robust expansion in 2017, globalconomic momentum has been more or less maintained in 2018 but is set to increasingly lose steam through 2019. Risks to the outlook continue to mount, especially stemming from the unfolding US-China trade war. In a more challenging global environment, it is increasingly clear that the room for policy mistakes is limited. Poor policymaking has already translated to crises in several emerging economies and potential for policy missteps such as trade policy in the US and populist policies in Italy could have global ramifications.

Key points

  • Global GDP growth is forecast to slightly accelerate to 3.1% in 2018 from 3.0% in 2017. In 2019, the world economy is forecast to expand 2.8%.
  • The US economy, with strong fundamentals further fuelled by fiscal stimulus, is expected to expand 2.9% this year before easing to 2.5% growth next year.
  • The eurozone economy continues to cool off as growth decelerates from 2.0% in 2018 to 1.7% in
  • 2019. The UK’s economy is slowing to 1.3% this year but is expected to remain resilient with 1.5% in 2019, should Brexit proceed in an orderly manner.
  • GDP growth across emerging market economies (EMEs) is holding up in 2018 and 2019 at 4.5% and 4.4% respectively. Emerging Asia will remain the growth leader but is losing pace to 5.6% growth in 2019 from 6.0% this year. Eastern Europe and MENA are also losing momentum while Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America are forecast to see moderate accelerations in 2019.
  • As global growth keeps pace this year, another 4% decline in insolvencies in advanced economies is forecast. We forecast only a 1% decline in 2019 as growth momentum eases.

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