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In its report “Promising Markets for 2022,” Atradius has identified a number of export markets that offer opportunities for Dutch exporters. Uruguay, Ivory Coast, Israel, Qatar, and Taiwan are promising markets that have recovered quickly from the pandemic, thanks to successful vaccination campaigns and a favorable political and institutional environment that facilitates doing business. Theo Smid and Dana Bodnar
Global Economy
More than two years after the start of the COVID-19 crisis, the global economy is likely to show positive growth again in 2022. Although the medium-term outlook is positive, the economic recovery is still hampered by various uncertainties, such as supply chain disruptions, high energy and commodity prices, and high inflation. The phasing out of support measures will also slow the recovery in several countries. Nevertheless, the overall outlook for 2022 is positive.
We identify Uruguay, Ivory Coast, Israel, Qatar, and Taiwan as promising markets in 2022. These countries were selected based on three criteria: (1) economic performance, (2) a stable political and institutional environment, and (3) the COVID-19 situation (infection rate and vaccination rate). What these countries have in common is that, thanks to their economic resilience, their capacity for innovation, and their growing middle class, they offer opportunities for Dutch exporters seeking new markets. These countries appear to be emerging strongly from the pandemic and are also known for their relatively favorable business climate and growth opportunities in various sectors.
Uruguay and Ivory Coast: Promising New Markets
Although Latin America has been hardest hit by the pandemic, Uruguay has successfully prioritized rapid vaccination of its population. With an expected GDP growth of 3% in 2022, Uruguay’s economy has returned to pre-pandemic levels. Government measures such as reopening borders, eliminating VAT for tourists, and providing loans to stimulate the tourism sector (which accounts for 17 percent of GDP) form a strong foundation for economic growth in 2022. We expect demand for automobiles and consumer electronics in particular to increase, offering growth opportunities in these sectors. At the same time, the country is increasingly developing into a regional supplier of renewable energy, particularly wind energy.
Côte d’Ivoire is one of the countries expected to see the strongest GDP growth (6.9%) worldwide. The government is making major investments in infrastructure, and Côte d’Ivoire is also a key international player in the agricultural sector, which offers opportunities for suppliers of agricultural machinery and innovative industrial agricultural processing equipment. The country is also a regional leader in renewable energy, and the government is focusing on the transition to a digital economy, which offers opportunities for IT companies.
Israel and Qatar: Stable Business Climate and Strong Economic Growth
Israel is performing well in the Middle East. This is partly due to the successful vaccination campaign that has given Israel a head start and is the foundation for economic growth that stood at 6.5% last year and is likely to reach 5% in 2022. Israel’s resilient economy is well-equipped to withstand external shocks and offers many opportunities in high-tech products, particularly in the aviation industry. The transportation sector also holds great promise, especially the market for electric vehicles and the necessary infrastructure, such as charging stations. The economic outlook for Qatar is also favorable. Rising oil and gas prices are expected to result in 3.6% growth in 2022. Qatar is also the world’s largest exporter of LNG, and the government plans to invest heavily in renewable energy, such as solar power. Furthermore, hosting the 2022 World Cup offers opportunities for the non-energy sector, such as tourism and the hospitality industry.
Taiwan: Strong Position as an International Chip Supplier
In Asia, Taiwan is performing well. This country, too, benefits from a stable political climate and high GDP growth in 2022 (3%). The outlook for businesses is positive, supported by good infrastructure, advanced manufacturing capacity, and strong innovation, particularly in the technology sector. Taiwan is a major producer of IT applications and a global leader in the production of electronic semi-finished products. With the global chip shortage set to continue this year, the growth outlook for this sector is promising. Other promising sectors include high-tech services, partly due to the accelerated digitization of society. Atradius expects Taiwan’s e-commerce market to grow by 9% annually through 2024. Among other things, this presents opportunities for the transportation sector and logistics services.