Reports

Business failures in the Polish food retail segment have increased in 2016, as mainly smaller players suffer from fierce competition and low margins.

Large food businesses are active globally and performing well, while smaller producers and wholesalers generally face tough competition and low margins.

Gearing of food businesses is generally high, and can be a significant risk for companies with weak profitability and focus on the domestic market.

The outlook for food exports remains positive, with further demand growth from overseas expected, due to the strong reputation of “Made in Italy”.

The economic downturn of two main export markets - Brazil and Angola - has led to reduced exports and, to some extent, investment levels in the sector.

While the industry is still fragmented, consolidation is on-going and companies should gain size and become more competitive domestically and abroad.

Economic growth is expected to pick up in 2017, but uncertainty about the new US administration (potential protectionist trade policies) casts a shadow.

The consequences of any US shift on its Mexico policy remain to be seen, but increased currency volatility has already an negative impact on the economy.

Steady, but uneven growth is expected to persist. Domestic demand is the main driver of expansion, but manufacturing and export performance remain subdued.

Pressures on international trade are mounting around the globe and the outlook is increasingly uncertain.

Nearly 90% of the survey respondents in Asia Pacific reported having experienced late payment of invoices from their B2B customers over the past year.

Nearly 24% of Australian suppliers surveyed consider maintaining adequate cash flow levels to be the greatest challenge to business profitability in 2016.

Suppliers surveyed in China (38.2%) appear to be the most likely of all their peers in Asia Pacific to sell on cash terms to their B2B customers.

The highest percentage of the suppliers interviewed in Hong Kong (42%) reported that domestic B2B customers pay invoices late due to liquidity issues.

As a consequence of late payment by B2B customers, 45% of suppliers surveyed in India reported they had to take specific measures to correct cash flow.

Cost containment and cash flow position considered greatest challenges to business profitability by 18% of Indonesian suppliers (20% in Asia Pacific).

Most of the suppliers surveyed in Japan (33%) reported that foreign late payment is most often a consequence of the complexity of the payment procedure.

Despite no variation in either domestic or foreign late payment rates, the average 46 days DSO recorded in Singapore is six days longer than last year.

91% of respondents in Taiwan (88% at regional level) reported late payment of invoices by domestic and foreign B2B customers over the past year.

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Overcapacity remains the main challenge, as the rebalancing of the economy from investment and export-driven growth towards private consumption continues.

The German steel and metals sector remains resilient with a competitive edge. However, major structural challenges and downside risks have increased.

Benefits from domestic steel demand growth will be offset by limits to raise sales prices due to the global steel overcapacity and cheap imports.

The Italian steel distributor segment has a large number of relatively small companies, which are still affected by weak demand and pressure on margins.

Fierce competition, high energy costs and increased uncertainty due to the Brexit decision continue to weigh on the financial strength of many businesses.

Banks are less willing to provide loans to the steel sector, given the high default rate and the recent debt impairment from one big steel manufacturers.

The US sector´s revenue performance remains negatively affected by the lower cost of imported steel and decreasing demand from the oil/gas industry.

The steel sector remains severely impacted by the ongoing domestic economic downturn, high interest rates, inflation, and exchange rate volatility.

A high level of competition, overcapacity and persistent low prices continue to affect revenues and margins of smaller French steel/metals traders.

External risk factors for the Mexican steel industry remain the volatility of the currency exchange rate and the impact of international metals prices.

The Dutch steel and metals sector has benefitted from a rebound in the building sector, but at the same time demand from the energy sector has decreased.

The level of protracted payments in the steel sector is high due to fierce competition, persistent pressure on margins and risky trading conditions.

Payment Practices Barometer for the Americas (NAFTA and Brazil) shows that 93% of respondents reported late payment from B2B customers over the past year.

In line with the survey average, 91.4% of respondents in Brazil (95.0% in 2015) reported late payment of invoices from B2B customers over the last 12 months.

While the economy is expected to slow down after a robust 4.6% in 2015, the forecast GDP growth rates of 2.5% in 2016 and 2.7% in 2017 are still solid.

Hungary´s economic growth is expected to rebound in 2017, after a slowdown in 2016, but the high level of external debt remains a major weakness.

Despite further growth, Poland is susceptible to a potential end of the eurozone recovery. Adverse economic policies could dampen investor sentiment.

The economic contraction continues in 2016, as investments and private consumption contract further. Only in 2017 a very modest rebound is expected.

Growth is expected to remain above 3% but the economy remains vulnerable to an eurozone downturn and adverse developments in the automotive sector.

Political risks have sharply increased, which could result in economic repercussions. Higher credit risks in the corporate sector are a major issue.

Looking at Russia, Atradius finds that oil price hardly matters for country risk.

The sector benefits from a robust performance of the Czech economy, but producers dependent on energy/mining and power engineering face difficulties.

The rebound that started in 2014 continues in 2016, but overcapacity still remains a real concern for the French machinery industry in the long-term.

The general outlook remains positive, and margins are relatively high, especially in niche segments. However,competition from China is increasing.

Competition remains strong in the domestic market, especially among small and medium-sized machinery companies dependent on construction businesses.

Key success factors for Danish machinery businesses is their ability to streamline costsand continued investment in product development/new technology.

The Turkish machinery sector faces some troubles, with sales under pressure since 2015. Political uncertainty leading to less capital expenditure.

Demand for Belgian machines and engineering businesses is still affected by the difficulties some major buyer industries are facing (e.g. construction).

The machinery sector mainly suffers from a massive decrease in public and private investments, especially in the construction and oil/gas sectors.